By 2050, we envision a Mexican society in which social, environmental and economic development has significantly benefited most societal groups. Progress has taken place hand-in-hand with significant CO2 mitigation and adaptation policies that have allowed the country to fulfill its emissions goals for a 1.5-2 degrees maximum global warming, and to go beyond these by adopting a 2050 net-zero greenhouse gases emissions target. Mexico’s green revolution will have focused on the most emission-intensive sectors: energy, transportation, and agriculture.

Mexico in 2050 is a better country than it was three decades ago. Citizens enjoy a better life and are happier. They are physically and mentally healthier. The context has significantly changed. The air and water are cleaner; transportation is not a polluting hassle; and there are more time, information, and opportunities for high-quality living.

Mexico is also a more democratic country in which existing institutions promote governments that are more responsive to citizens, and enterprises have sufficient incentives to behave well. Economic, social, and political conflict is not absent, of course; yet, there are effective ways to solve conflict with low transaction costs.

In 2050 Mexico, communities and local governments are stronger. They have sufficient resources and incentives to minimize risks stemming from climate change—they no longer need to demand the attention of national government and of multiple intermediaries.

In this context, ambitious thinking and policies are feasible.

A Virtuous Circle

In this society that we envision, all relevant actors have incentives to control their CO2 emissions at the globally-optimal level. A virtuous circle has developed between the incentives and the behaviors of governments, citizens, and industries. This has been possible not only because a change in conscience, but because, given the existing constraints, the “correct” policies were implemented.

Citizens know that they are entitled to a good life—a better one than 30 years ago. They know that they do not have to live in polluted environments and that local and sustainable consumption have significant benefits. A sea change in the national culture has taken place, encouraged by significant support to local organizations that significantly reduce citizens’ collective action problems for demanding better living conditions.

Policy-makers at all levels of government are significantly constrained by citizens’ demands for lower greenhouse gas emissions and by subnational authorities that have incentives to have “clean” administrations. Politicians have raised their climactic ambitions and have a shared vision of a better Mexico, which is rewarded by voters.

Thanks to the policies and incentives put in place 30 years ago, carbon pricing has progressively increased from US$3 up to US$75 in 2050. Revenues from carbon taxes and other fiscal instruments have allowed governments to invest in just transitions that consider the prevention of climate risks, the reduction of regional inequalities, and compensations of various sorts (including retraining, unemployment benefits, and investment in community development) to individuals and communities affected by the demise high-emission industrial activities, as well as by the consequences of climate change.

Power generation is now much cleaner, transportation has significantly changed by embracing low emissions technologies, food production has implemented low-emissions best practices, and food consumption has moved towards zero emissions products.

Industries have gradually adapted to the new regulations and realities, not because of philanthropy, but because consumer preferences are now pro-environment, technological advancements have made change financially feasible, and governments have provided adequate incentives, compensations, vigilance, and sanctioning. Over time, large parts of the population and businesses have acquired a stake in the new low-emissions status quo, rendering it a stable state of affairs from the social, economic, political, and geopolitical points of view.

Our Vision by Core Areas   

This future that we envision is built on ambitious changes on institutions, technology, and culture in three core areas that account for the majority of emissions in the previous decades: energy, transportation, and agriculture and forestry.

Energy

Thirty years ago, electricity generation accounted for almost one quarter of CO2 emissions (INEEC). Today, in 2050, the electricity sector significantly decarbonized. Mexico’s net zero-power generation policy is constructed around carbon pricing and renewables. [¿queremos meter nuclear?]

Carbon pricing has been successful at inducing consumers and producers to change their behaviors, leading to less carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, revenues from the carbon tax have been progressively allocated to emissions mitigation policies and compensatory policies to those negatively affected by the transition to a low emissions environment.

Politically powerful stakeholders that were initially opposed to a widespread carbon tax across energy sources—including oil, cement, steel, and coal production—were successfully compensated and incentivized to adopt cutting-edge technologies, and faced an ample coalition of NGOs, local governments, international organizations, and international trading partners that were able to counter its initial resistance to change.

PEMEX (Mexico’s state-owned oil company) and CFE (Mexico’s state-owned electricity company) successfully transitioned to clean energies, mainly solar and wind, in a fair market environment. These state-owned enterprises no longer constitute sectoral monopolies. Methane emissions were successfully minimized in oil and gas production thanks to technological change. Energy-intensive sectors such as steel, chemicals, metals, cement, glass, and paper have successfully adapted to renewable sources.

Government intervention was successful to compensate not only enterprises, but also workers and communities, adding a progressive component to its policy of carbon pricing.

Mexico’s change in power generation policies has benefited many communities. Power generation is no longer an obstacle to a good life. Citizens understand that air and water pollution are not a “necessary” ill associated with power generation. Former “oil towns” have found new economic activities with help from governments and international NGOs that provided resources and incentives for change and innovation.

Transportation

Transportation in 2050 Mexico is no longer a massive source of emissions. Thirty years ago it accounted for about 18% of greenhouse gas emissions, formerly projected to double by 2050). This has had a significant positive impact on Mexicans’ health, leisure time, and social capital.

Thanks to technological change and government fiscal incentives, as compared to fuel vehicles, electric vehicles (EV) are no more expensive to purchase and there is a wide selection of models. EV are less expensive to operate than fuel vehicles, and public and home charging are widespread. Hydrocarbon fuel subsidies have been fully eliminated.

Modal shift is a reality in 2050 Mexico. The country has been successful in managing transport demand, disincentivizing the use of motorized transport. Walking and cycling are feasible options for many. Many lives have been saved by reducing traffic fatalities. Traffic reduction has meant more free time and less stress by decreasing commuting time. Streets are less noisy now and have become proper public spaces for citizens’ interactions.

Congestion charge zones are ubiquitous across Mexico’s metropolitan areas. In addition to reducing traffic and improving air quality, revenue from these programs has been invested in community development and compensation to those initially affected negatively by the congestion charge policies.

Cities are more compact. Citizens do not have to commute long distances to work, school, or shopping. This has improved Mexicans’ physical and mental health and it has reduced health care costs.

Transportation culture has changed in Mexico. One big transformation has been to remove the stigma among middle and upper economic classes about public transportation as an option only for the poor. Better public transportation has, therefore, contributed to a less stratified society by improving transport equity.

Agriculture and Forestry

Thirty years ago, the bovine industry produced about 13% of all of Mexico’s greenhouse gas emissions. Today, the agriculture and forestry sectors have been quite successful at mitigating emissions. Significant changes in supply and demand for products in these sectors have been driven by a combination of change in habits and preferences, technological change, and effective regulation.

The production of meat played a key role. Increasingly, citizens have changed their consumption habits, partly because of limited natural beef supply and its corresponding price increase, and partly because “eating the right thing” is now taken more seriously by many people: a change in culture has taken place.

Some beef producers have gradually switched to more profitable alternatives, such as fish or poultry farming. Others have taken advantage of new technologies, such as silvopasture systems and biodigesters to mitigate emissions. The synthetic meat industry is beginning to flourish, mostly among the younger generations who are growing up with it from the start.

Another key change to mitigate emissions has been a significant reduction in the use of synthetic fertilizers. This has also contributed to better health outcomes.

The protection and restoration of the forestry is a top priority for the Mexican government. The administration of forestry policies has been decentralized to local governments, which have a more direct interest in enforcing regulation, collecting fines, and have more information about what is happening on the ground. The local level of authority also faces more-direct citizen pressure to do a good job.

Mexicans have modified their mindset about environmental protection and conservation thanks to increased exposure to information on these issues and to changing economic incentives. The consumption of locally-produced food is no longer en expensive fashion, but an affordable and widespread way of living. This has also strengthened social capital in communities and created multiple stakeholders that provide incentives for local governments to support the new status quo.